統計学輪講（第３４回）

日時    2004年 12月  7日(火)　15時〜16時40分
場所    経済学部新棟３階第３教室
講演者  Kunihiko Takahashi* and Toshiro Tango(Department of Technology
          Assessment and Biostatistics, National Institute of Public Health)
演題    A flexible scan statistic for spatial cluster detection
概要：
Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic(1997) has been applied in a wide
variety of epidemiological studies for spatial cluster detection. His scan
statistic, however, uses a circular window to define the potential cluster
areas and thus has a difficulty of correctly identifying actual noncircular
clusters. We propose a flexible scan statistic that can identify clusters
of any shape. The performance of the proposed procedure is compared with
that of Kulldorff's circle-based scan statistic via Monte Carlo simulation
by considering several circular and noncircular hot-spot cluster models.

To compare the performance of these tests, we introduced (1)bivariate power
function classified by the number of regions detected as the most likely 
cluster
and the number of hot-spot regions included in the most likely cluster and
(2) a new performance measure including the usual power as a special case.

The proposed flexible scan statistic is shown to have higher usual powers 
and
also to identify the noncircular hot-spot clusters more accurately than
Kulldorff's scan statistic.

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Tokyo University