統計学輪講（第45回）

統計学輪講（第４５回）

日時      2007年2月5日(火)    15時～15時50分
場所      経済学部新棟３階第３教室
講演者    大野 裕朗 (法学政治学研究科D1)
演題      Crime Pattern Analysis in Japan in the Post-war Period

概要

 My paper analyses crime pattern in Japan in the post-war period
(1955-2005) both
at national and local levels in terms of sociological criminology theories as
well as in the context of socio-economic change.
 As is well-known, Western societies have experienced a significant
increase in
crime rates after World War II. This trend has two major
characteristics: first,
a widespread increase in crime trends across western societies; and second, a
similar timing in onset of these trends, that is, around 1955. Compared to the
trends of other advanced economies, crime rates in Japan developed anomalously
post-1950 in that at least until the early 90s, crime rates in Japan remained
relatively flat and low or even declining, before rising as the country entered
its recent recession (Heisei Recession), shaping its peak in 2002. This
stability in Japanese crime statistics is all the more remarkable when one
considers the sweeping changes in Japanese society over this period.
 In seeking to account for Japan's low crime rates, both sociologists and
criminologists have typically drawn attention to the country's peculiar legal,
socio-psychological and cultural (ethnic) features. Many of these analyses have
been persuasive, although they suffer as a whole from their static,
impressionistic, unscientific character, and notably, their weak predictive
ability.
 Although my presentation covers review of relevant literature and my current
research plan alone, the paper stresses the significance of spacio-temporal
analysis of crime pattern at different geographical scales.